GC SITUATION REPORT AND BUSINESS SURVEY RESULTS
100th Edition - Five year analysis and key trends:
In 100th edition of SITREP, we reflect on six years of business intelligence gathered from over 15,000 businesses across Greater Manchester. Originally launched during the Covid-19 pandemic, SITREP has evolved into a valuable evidence base, tracking how firms have responded to changing economic conditions and emerging challenges.
A consistent theme has been the resilience and adaptability of Greater Manchester businesses. Despite facing inflation, energy price shocks, labour shortages, supply chain disruption and geopolitical uncertainty, firms have continued to invest, innovate and maintain confidence in future growth. The evidence highlights a shift from supply-side challenges towards demand generation, alongside the growing importance of skills, productivity, digital transformation and AI adoption. The strongest-performing businesses have been those that adapted, invested and innovated, demonstrating that Greater Manchester's long-term success is built on a resilient, ambitious and forward-looking business community.
Latest SITREP
This is based on 694 surveys completed between 2nd July 2026 and 2nd October 2026, with comparisons to last month SITREP data typically provided in brackets.
The full report provides aggregate findings for Greater Manchester, and an annex is in development that will contain results for Local Authorities and target groups for support.
Economic Overview
UK economy remains broadly resilient, although the pace of growth has moderated. GDP increased by 0.1% in August 2026, following growth of 0.4% in both June and July, defying expectations of a contraction. Annual GDP growth strengthened to 2.1%, the fastest rate since October 2022, supported by a rebound in manufacturing and mining output and an improving trade position, with the UK's trade deficit narrowing to its lowest level since January. However, growth remains uneven across sectors, with services output flat and construction activity continuing to weaken despite generally robust consumer and business activity.
A key risk to the outlook continues to be heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their impact on global energy markets. The Bank of England has reiterated that energy prices remain a significant upside risk to inflation, with sustained increases in oil and gas prices potentially feeding through to transport, manufacturing and household costs. While the economy has so far shown resilience and businesses have absorbed some of the recent cost increases, policymakers remain cautious about the inflation outlook. As a result, expectations for future interest rate cuts have become increasingly uncertain, with markets now focused on the possibility that rates could remain higher for longer if energy-driven inflationary pressures persist into late 2026 and 2027.
GC Organisation Growth Survey overview (OGS)
GC Business confidence across Greater Manchester remained resilient in September 2026, with the GC Business Confidence Index at 7.4/10 (vs 7.5 previously). Trading conditions improved slightly, with 17% of firms reporting increased sales over the previous 12 weeks (up from 14%), while 9% reported declining sales. Business sentiment remains positive, with 65% of firms expecting profits to increase over the next 12 months and only 2% anticipating a decline. Investment intentions also strengthened, as 41% of firms expect to increase capital expenditure (up from 39%) and 25% plan to increase workforce development investment.
Business resilience remains mixed, although some operational pressures have eased. Cashflow issues fell to 16% (from 18%), while staff shortages linked to recruitment difficulties decreased to 7% (from 9%). However, 50% of firms now report cash reserves sufficient for more than six months, down from 52% previously. The most significant challenge remains accessing new domestic sales opportunities, cited by 52% of firms, while managing finances (29%), developing new products and services (32%), and adapting business models (31%) continue to be key concerns.
Growth, innovation and workforce capability remain key priorities for Greater Manchester businesses. Demand for support is highest in business planning (38%), sales and marketing (38%), innovation (37%) and financial advice (33%). Recruitment activity fell to 25% of firms (from 29%), while only 37% report workforce skills are fully aligned with business objectives. Innovation intentions strengthened, with 35% planning to increase investment in innovation and R&D, while 17% are looking to invest in digital transformation. AI adoption reached a record 64% (up from 59%), with firms increasingly using AI for data processing, analytics and task automation.
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For more information on this survey, please contact
Sabirah.Chowdhury@growthco.uk