GC Business Survey

Latest report: 02 February 2026

The full GC Situation Report contains detailed data on the economy, and results of the GC Survey and Business Confidence Index. It also provides headline data for local authorities in Greater Manchester.

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GC SITUATION REPORT AND BUSINESS SURVEY RESULTS

UK Economic Performance

Global growth is set to remain resilient into 2026, supported by strong AI-driven investment, solid US consumer demand and easing trade tensions, with world GDP rising to around 2.7%. However, risks persist from high debt, potential AI-asset corrections, labour-market cooling and geopolitical tensions. The Eurozone outlook is modest, constrained by weak competitiveness and structural challenges despite fiscal support. UK growth remains fragile at about 1%, with easing inflation toward 2% but continued pressure from food prices and expectations. Labour-market slack is increasing, and gradual Bank of England rate cuts are expected. Services-led private-sector growth continues, while consumer spending stays weak and construction contraction shows early signs of stabilisation.

Survey Summary

Business sentiment across Greater Manchester remains resilient, with the GC Confidence Index stable at 7.2. Confidence is strongest in Construction, Manufacturing and Hospitality, while sectors such as BFPS, DCTs, Education, Engineering, Life Sciences and Healthcare report weaker outlooks. Sales performance is steady, with 17% of firms seeing increases and only 9% reporting declines, while profit expectations have strengthened, with 61% expecting gains. Investment intentions continue to improve, led by DCTs, Hospitality, Manufacturing and Retail.

Despite this resilience, financial pressures remain a significant constraint. Cashflow issues have risen to 18%, particularly affecting micro-firms and those in DCTs, Green Tech, Hospitality and Retail. Rising costs persist as the dominant challenge, accompanied by ongoing recruitment difficulties. Businesses are increasingly prioritising planning, innovation, sales and marketing, workforce development and financial advice to manage uncertainty and maintain stability in the face of ongoing pressures.

Labour-market conditions are mixed, with recruitment activity increasing modestly—25% of firms are hiring, particularly in BFPS, Construction, Education, Manufacturing and Retail. However, activity remains weaker in Green Tech, Hospitality, Healthcare and Life Sciences. Skills mismatches remain widespread, especially in specialist technical, advanced IT, sales and people-management skills. Innovation continues to strengthen, and AI adoption is accelerating, with 47% of firms using it across analytics, marketing, administration and process automation to boost productivity and competitiveness.

Key Findings

GC Business Confidence Index (GC-BCI): Business confidence stood at 7.2 (unchanged); confidence higher in Hospitality, Construction, Manufacturing and Green Tech, while Engineering, Digital/Tech, Healthcare, Life Sciences, Engineering and BFPS report weaker outlooks.

Investment: 35% (vs 31%) of firms expect to increase capital expenditure in the year ahead; 34% (vs 35%) of firms plan to increase workforce development investment. Sectors more likely to report an increase in WFD are BFPS, Construction, Education, Retail, Manufacturing, Retail and Hospitality.

Cashflow Issues: 18% (vs 16%) of firms reported cashflow problems and higher risk reported in DCTs, Green Tech, Hospitality, Retail and other services.

Trade: 20% of firms (vs 25%) export goods/services, with 17% (unchanged) expanding into new markets.

Future Support Needs: sales & marketing 35% (vs 33%), workforce skills 31% (vs 32%), business planning 37% (vs 31%), innovation 34% (vs 31%), and financial advice 28% (vs 24%).

Recruitment and Skills: 25% of firms recruiting; higher among SMEs; most active in BFPS, Construction, Education, Manufacturing and Retail which remains similar.