GC Business Survey

Latest report: 12 March 2026

The full GC Situation Report contains detailed data on the economy, and results of the GC Survey and Business Confidence Index. It also provides headline data for local authorities in Greater Manchester.

Download the latest full GC Situation Report here.

Download the report infographic here.

GC SITUATION REPORT AND BUSINESS SURVEY RESULTS

UK Economic Performance

Global growth into 2026 remains supported by strong AI-driven investment and resilient US consumer demand, but dependence on a narrow set of drivers increases vulnerability to shocks. Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have driven sharp energy-market volatility, with oil prices briefly exceeding $100 per barrel. This has renewed risks to inflation, trade and market confidence. The UK economy is forecast to grow by around 1% in 2026, reflecting weak productivity, cautious investment and fragile consumer confidence. Higher energy prices pose downside risks, potentially weighing on growth and employment. While inflation had been easing, renewed energy pressures may push CPI higher, leading the Bank of England to adopt a more cautious and gradual approach to interest-rate cuts.

The UK economy is expected to grow at around 1% in 2026, reflecting weak productivity, cautious business investment and fragile consumer confidence, despite some resilience in services. Recent energy price shocks linked to geopolitical tensions have increased downside risks to the outlook, with forecasters warning that higher oil and gas prices could further dampen growth and raise unemployment. Business surveys and official forecasts continue to point to stabilisation rather than a strong recovery.

While inflation had been easing toward the 2% target, the surge in energy prices has raised the risk of a renewed inflation uptick during 2026. Analysts warn CPI inflation could rise towards 2.7%–5% if oil and gas prices remain elevated, prompting markets to scale back expectations of near‑term interest‑rate cuts. As a result, the Bank of England is now expected to proceed more cautiously, with any easing in policy likely to be gradual and dependent on energy prices and labour‑market conditions stabilising.

Survey Summary

Business confidence across Greater Manchester remains stable, with the GC Business Confidence Index holding at 7.2. Confidence is strongest in Construction, Manufacturing, Green Tech, Education and Retail, while outlooks remain weaker in DCTs, Engineering, Life Sciences and Healthcare. Sales performance is unchanged, with 17% of firms reporting growth and 9% reporting declines. Profit expectations have improved further, with 62% of firms expecting profits to rise, although investment intentions have softened slightly amid ongoing uncertainty. Rising costs remain the main pressure on businesses, though this has eased marginally alongside slight improvements in cashflow. Cashflow pressures affect 17% of firms, particularly micro-firms and those in DCTs, Green Tech, Hospitality and Retail. Recruitment activity has edged up, but skills mismatches persist, especially across technical, IT, sales and leadership roles. Innovation remains steady, with growing investment intentions in R&D, digital capability and workforce development, while AI adoption continues to expand, supporting productivity and competitiveness.

Key Findings

GC Business Confidence Index (GC-BCI): Business confidence stood at 7.2 out of 10, similar to the previous quarter. Confidence levels are above average for Construction, Education, Manufacturing (excluding Engineering), Green Tech, and Retail; and lower in DCTs, Engineering, Life Sciences, and Health Care.

Investment: 34% (vs 35%) of firms expect to increase capital expenditure in the year ahead; 35% (vs 34%) of firms plan to increase workforce development investment. Sectors more likely to report an increase in WFD are BFPS, Construction, Education, Engineering, Retail, Manufacturing, Retail and Hospitality; and lowest in Other Service activities.

Cashflow Issues: 17% (vs 18%) of firms reported cashflow problems and higher risk reported in DCTs, Green Tech, Hospitality, Retail and Other services. Trade: 19% of firms (vs 20%) export goods/services, with 18% (vs 17%) expanding into new markets, a trend particularly notable in the DCTs, Manufacturing & Engineering, and Retail sectors. 10% (vs 12%) of firms engaged in overseas trade are looking to expand in their current markets.

Trade: 20% of firms (vs 25%) export goods/services, with 17% (unchanged) expanding into new markets.

Future Support Needs: sales & marketing 36% (vs 35%), skills 34% (vs 31%), business planning 41% (vs 37%), innovation 37% (vs 34%), and financial advice/guidance 28% (unchanged).

Recruitment and Skills: 26% of firms recruiting; higher among SMEs; most active in in BFPS, Construction, Manufacturing and Engineering, and Retail Sectors.